Augusta National is 7,400 yards of pure golf heaven. That said,
there's nothing easy about it. Greens are slick and undulating; fairways
are narrow and winding, and the bunkers and the water are a-plenty.
There's little rough, which is Augusta's
signature, and probably only fair considering how difficult the course
is. Only the best of the best need apply, and sleepers are going to be
difficult to come by. That's not so say a Zach Johnson or a Larry Mize
can't break through, although it's a lot more common at the three other
majors. Look at the past winners and you'll see seven, potentially eight
of the previous 69 winners aren't superstars and giants in the sport. So,
sleepers will be few, but there's nothing to say that it's impossible; you
know, impossible like the winner of the Par-3 Championship today actually
winning the tournament, considering it's never happened.
A Group
Rory Sabbatini - Well, I don't think anyone's going to beat Tiger,
but assuming he gets abducted by aliens or something, there needs to be a
winner. Sabbatini has been a bit rough around the edges with his game
this year, but he is six-for-six on cuts made this year, and has two
top-3s. He is 6th in All-Around rank, which is usually a pretty good
indicator at a tournament like the Masters. The big concern with his game
would be off the tee, where he's 42nd in Driving Distance, and 103rd in Driving
Accuracy, with the latter one being the biggest concern. The trees are
not the place to be at Augusta.
GIR is 29th and Putting Average is 33rd; those are both excellent, and 2nd in
Bounce Back is just awesome. Sabbatini is far enough under the radar that
few will be paying attention to him, and don't be surprised if he's in the mix
on Sunday.
B Group
Bernhard Langer - I don't like picking past champions, especially
those on the Champions Tour, because there's always the possibility that they
literally get tired Saturday and Sunday. I'm going to go out on what I
consider a limb, and go with Langer here for a couple reasons. First of
all, he's a two-time champ here, and while one can be a fluke, multiple
champions are never a fluke. This would mean he's got the cache and
gravitas to stare Tiger in the eye and not blink; essentially, he won't be puking
on Sunday if he's near the lead. Secondly, and this is the determining
factor, he is tearing up the Champions Tour with two wins and six top-25s
overall in seven events. He's 7th in Driving Distance, 6th in GIR, 11th
in Putting Average, 2nd in Sand Saves, 3rd in Total Driving, 2nd in All-Around,
5th in Scrambling and 1st in Bounce Back on the Champions Tour. He's
dominating, and if he brings that same dominating mindset to Augusta,
he can make some real noise.
C Group
Jose Maria Olazabal - So much for my "I don't like picking
past champions" stance. Olazabal is a different case though, because
a) He's not the Champions Tour and b) He's been good at Augusta
recently. He has finished 15th or better in 13 of his last 18 Masters and
he's also the winner of the 1994 and 1999 Masters and was the runner-up in
1991. He also had the low round of the 2006 Masters scoring a 66 Sunday for a
T-3 finish. The only question coming in would be that he hasn't played much
golf this year. Although course familiarity isn't going to be an issue
(this will be his 20th Masters), rust will be, so it will be interesting to see
how it plays out. Olazabal's the type that hangs around the top come
Sunday at a major tournament, so I certainly wouldn't be shocked if it were
there again.
Thanks for reading, and please comment below.