The Tournament Course at Redstone is a long course, close to 7,500 yards and
lines with lots of trees and bunkers, and features a lake on the back
nine. It's a course than demands accuracy off the tee, and the ability to
get it out there. The rest is actually not that tough; the greens are
huge and really receptive, and not too difficult to putt on, so if you stay out
of trouble off the tee, you'll likely score well on the hole. It's a
pretty decent field this week with most of the top stars returning to action
looking to tune up for next week's Masters. Tiger won't be there, but
Phil will be, as well as most of the top golfers in the World. It will be
tough for a sleeper to really make noise this week, due to the field strength,
but it someone's game matches the course enough, it could be enough to put that
player in a position to score well enough to get in the money.
A Group - Hunter Mahan: Mahan has netted four top-25s thus
far on the season, including two top-10s, the most recent being a T-6th at Bay
Hill. Mahan's been a bit hit or miss over the last few weeks, but the
numbers, my key numbers for the week say he's got a good shot at cashing well
this week. The two most important stats to look at this week are Driving
Accuracy and Greens In Regulation; Mahan rates well in both: 34th and 16th
respectively. The only concern may be his woeful putting numbers; he's 132nd
in Putting Average and 175th in Putts Per Round. I just don't think
putting is going to be a huge issue this week; the greens aren't that hard, or
better yet, they're the exact opposite of what the Masters will be like next
week.
B Group - Steve Elkington: Apparently I've mentioned Elkington
enough that he's been shifted into the B Group, and that's just fine because it
really appears Elkington is having a bounce back year. Four top-10s
including a T-10th last week on a tougher course leads me to believe he's peaking
at the right time. Elkington's got all the tools to get it done this
week. He's 20th in Driving Accuracy and 61st in Greens In
Regulation. As an added bonus, he's quite good with the putter as well,
69th in Putting Average, 73rd in Putts Per Round. His length off the tee
(139th in Driving Distance) might be a concern, but I think he's right on the
cusp of "just long enough". Expect Elkington to snag another
top-25 this week.
C Group - Frank Lickliter II:
Lickliter's really been on
the periphery this season, hanging around enough for four top-25s, but nothing
really outstanding, his best finish a T-17th. He's struggled back and
forth a bit, and the numbers may skew a bit from tournament to tournament; but
there's been enough tournaments that those should level out a bit, and it turns
out Lickliter's got the numbers that equal a potential good finish at
Redstone. He's 51st in Driving Accuracy, good enough (99th GIR, 115th
Driving Distance) in the secondarily important numbers and 61st in Putting
Average and 39th in Putts Per Round, which never hurts. I'd look for
Lickliter to back into a top-25 this week.
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