Canada's
National tournament is traditionally a good test of golf on Tour for the
players, but more than that now; it's a critical tournament when it comes to
the FedEx Cup Playoffs standings. This week for "Sleepers" I'm
going to do something a little different, and focus on those that need to climb
into the top-75 in order to "make the cut" for the playoffs.
Well, except in one case; where this player (a Canadian no less) is a
super-solid pick for a sleeper, and I’d be remiss leaving him out of the mix.
This is Glen Abbey, which is easily the toughest course used in the Canadian
Open rotation. In fact, in 2004 (the last time the Tour visited Glen
Abbey); it was ranked the fourth-toughest course on Tour for the season.
The first three? Shinnecock, Augusta and Royal Troon were the only three
ranked ahead of Glen Abbey. It just so happens, those were the sites of
the Masters, U.S. Open and The Open Championship; so Glen Abbey is in good
company (it's compared most closely to a course like Congressional, which was a
nice test for everyone this year at Wachovia). Maybe the Canadian Open at
Glen Abbey should be considered "the fifth Major" this year instead
of The Players? Sorry, that was maybe a little bit more of Sergio Garcia vitriol
left over. I think I've got it out of my system. Mostly,
anyway. Anyway, enough of this; let's get to the sleepers.
Mark Calcavecchia - A Group - Let me start off by saying I don't love
this pick at all; but as I mentioned in "Start
'Em Sit 'Em" this week, the A Group is really thin, and I'm not
convinced the winner will come from there. I do have reasoning
(admittedly, relatively weak reasoning, but reasoning none the less) for the
Calcavecchia pick. First off, it's a course he has played a few times
before, so he's got "veteran knowledge" of the course (I told you it
was weak). He's also got a lot to play for; at 104th in the FedEx Cup
Standings, he's going to need a win to get him into the top-75. As far as
his stats go, well; he's got a lot of veteran knowledge of the course at Glen
Abbey. He's 153rd in Diving Distance and 86th in Driving Accuracy (good
for 157th in Total Driving). He's 70th in Greens in Regulation which isn't
bad. He's 132nd in Putting average, and 126th in Putts Per Round;
all-in-all, it's an All-Around Ranking of 118th. So, he's got a lot of
veteran knowledge of the course. (I truly hate this pick; but he's got as
good a chance of anyone else left in the A Group Pool) Expect
Calcavecchia to possibly make the cut this week (sigh).
Stephen Ames - B Group - Now we're talking! I already feel
better after that A Group pick. Ames
has been terrific all season long. He's made 14 cuts in 15 starts, with
eight top-25 finishes and five top-10s including three in his last five
starts. Ames currently sits
25th in the FedEx Cup standings and 24th on the OWGR; so a win, or even a
strong finish, would position him well when the playoffs actually start;
virtually guaranteeing him a spot in all four events. He's not the
greatest off the tee; he's 145th in Driving Distance and 92nd in Driving
Accuracy; which is 154th in Total Driving. He's 99th in Greens In
Regulation; but he saves it all by being 32nd in Putting Average, 45th in Putts
Per round, and 24th in All-Around Ranking. Solid play, nothing outstanding;
just solid - to the degree where everyone forgets about him, and that makes
him, you guessed it, a sleeper! Also, he is Canadian, and has played this
course many times, which gives him, wait for it, veteran knowledge of the
course! In all seriousness, Ames
has a really good chance to compete on a course that is going to play shorter
than the yardage all week, and it IS his National Championship after all.
I'd say he's a lock for the top-25, and looks pretty solid to book him for the
top-10 as well.
Troy Matteson - C Group - Am I cheating here? I put Matteson as
one of my four italicized "look at these guys too" picks for the C
Group; but I've thought more about it, and I'd like to give him a full boost to
the Sleepers division. He currently sits 84th in the FedEx Cup standings,
so clearly he has to make up some ground to get into the top-75; but even more
than that, a win could vault him into the top-30, which would give him a
punched ticket throughout the playoffs. I guess, being one of the 24
people who watched the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee,
I was impressed by the majority of Matteson's run during the tournament.
He didn't finish strong, perhaps feeling the pressure a bit (he was the leader
late into Sunday), but I think overall he should be able to contend. He
must putt better, however, than his numbers indicate; and certainly better than
he did last Sunday, which essentially cost him the tournament. Here are
the numbers in general: He's 26th in Driving Distance and 163rd in Driving
accuracy (74th in Total Driving). He's 88th in Greens In regulation, 64th
in Sand Saves, and 68th in Bounce Back. His putter? 160th in
Putting Average and 168th in Putts Per Round; Sergio Garcia levels.
Perhaps I'm basing too much on one tournament, but I really think Matteson can
contend here; especially considering the utter lack of an A Group. I'd be
disappointed if he didn't snag a top-25 finish.