This week brings us to one of our "almost" majors, and the
TPC is year after year one of the most popular and most viewed events on Tour
each year. Of course, Tiger's not going to grace us with his presence
this year; therefore the "experts" are going to have to earn their
money this week (Beware of PHIL picks that include "defending champ"
as the main reason for the pick). I would think most readers are familiar
with Sawgrass, or at least familiar with the Island Hole at 17, where one of
the easiest pitching wedge shots in golf turns into a "who can hit it in
the water the most" contest. It's an amazing phenomenon, considering
you're looking at a pretty natural PW for these players (about 140 yds) to a
pretty receptive green. When you consider that design-wise, the 17th is
probably the easiest hole on the golf course, then that should give you the
shivers. TPC Sawgrass is just a test, every hole, every fairway, every
green. Most holes are lined by trees, and those that aren't are lined by water.
Bunkers are everywhere. Greens are nearly impossible, and fairways are
narrow. It's a great test of golf, and only the strong will
survive. Here are my picks (and picks against) this week.
Start
Adam Scott - A Group - Accept no imitations. You're going to
read a lot about Vijay Singh's "home-course advantage" this
week. Don't buy it. He's played this course hundreds of times and
has never won the TPC, so it's one of those "lazy" picks. The
other "lazy" pick this week is Phil Mickelson. He had a top-25
last week, and he's the defending champ, but how many golfers not named
"Eldrick" repeat in big tournaments nowadays? Phil's simply not
playing as well as he could be, and I don't think he's going to be a huge
factor. That brings us to Scott. 7 events played, 7 cuts made, 6
top-25s, 3 top-10s including a playoff loss three weeks ago and an 8th place
this past week. He's been putting fantastic (20th in Putting Average),
great on his approaches (28th in GIR), is always long (5th in Driving Distance)
and 1st in All-Around Ranking. I love Scott to win this week, and even if
he doesn't, he'll contend.
Stewart Cink - B Group - I'm riding this horse until he actually
wins. Cink's played too well to stay out of the winner's circle much
longer. His numbers are awfully similar to Scott's. 10 events
played, 9 cuts made, 7 top-25s, 6 top-10s (you read that right ... SIX
top-10s), two 3rd place finishes (including the Master's) and two 2nd place
finishes (including the WGC Accenture Match Play). The word I'm looking
for to describe his game right now is "sick", I think. 26th in
Driving Distance, 7th in GIR, 47th in Putting Average, 37th in Sand Saves, 3rd
in All-Around, 41st in Scrambling, 5th in Bounce Back, and, most importantly,
he's 3rd in the Fed Ex Cup rankings. You heard it here first, Cink will
win at some point in the next month, and why not this week?
Kenny Perry - C Group - I'm off the Steve Marino bandwagon until he
does something, although he will be playing this week as well. Perry's
not the same guy he once was, but hey, none of us are, right? In all
seriousness though, Perry's got some favorable numbers to take with him into
the week, including 10 cuts made in 11 events although he has just one top-10,
which was a 3rd way back at the Bob Hope. That's a little disconcerting,
as are his putting numbers (114th in Putting Average, 112th in Putts Per
Round), but the rest of the package is much better (17th in Driving Distance,
39th in GIR, 19th in Total Driving, 40th in All-Around). Will Perry
win? Probably not, but I expect him to notch a top-25 here. There
are a lot of "top-level" golfers here who tend to fade *cough* Vijay,
Sergio *cough cough* in big tournaments and big spots. A veteran like
Perry should be able to slide in for a high finish.
Sit
Phil Mickelson - A Group - My main reason? He's the
"defending champion". Guess how many back to back winners there
have been at The Players Championship? Ok, I'll wait while you look it
up. That's right, NONE. Nicklaus won it three times, but never back
to back. Couples won it twice, 12 years apart. Not even Tiger (when
he still played this event) won it twice. Phil's going to be the first
one? Since his win at the Northern Trust Open at "his" course
at TPC Scottsdale, Mickelson has one top-10 finish, and that was a T-5th at the
Masters, something like 1,000,000 shots back. Bottom line from me is,
Phil is NOT playing winning golf right now. Sure, he's got the talent to
always be a factor, I'll admit that. But when you take into account the
history of the course and the trend of Phil's most recent tournaments; choosing
Mickelson here would be foolhardy. Especially when there are probably
three or four better choices.
Honorable Mention: Vijay Singh. "His home course" is NOT
a reason to pick this guy. He's having trouble making cuts, and he has
NEVER won this tournament. Remember that.
Mike Weir - B Group - The former Master's Champ is starting to fit
the "Rich Beem" mold with each passing week. After an unreal
hot streak that carried over two seasons, Weir has crashed in a big way.
He has four missed cuts in his last seven tournaments, and just one top-10 on
the season, and that one was way back at the Mercedes Benz (4th). The
numbers aren't terrible, but the production just isn't there (128th in Scoring
Average). I don't see Weir becoming a factor anytime soon, and certainly
not in a stacked field like this one.
Trevor Immelman - C Group - I have no explanation for Immelman's play
other than he's got a hangover from the Masters still. He still has
putrid putting numbers (191st in Putting Average, 184th in Putts Per Round),
and has gone Cut, Cut in finishes the last two weeks. Will this be the
week he wakes from his dream? I suppose it COULD happen, but I'm certainly
not expecting it. Until Immelman makes a cut, I'm picking against him.