Johan Santana is considered, by many, the best pitcher in all of baseball. Real life or fantasy, Santana is at the top of the list. If there is any prospect that has a chance to be the "next" Johan Santana, then Phil Hughes' name should be at the top of the list. The consensus is that many prospects don't pan out, which is true, but Phil Hughes is a different breed of prospect. In the world of fantasy baseball, especially keeper leagues, Phil Hughes is literally worth his weight in gold.
Johan Santana (6‘, 208 lbs., LHSP):
Santana's minor league numbers are head scratching. He has always been able to strike guys out, but he completely transformed himself. If one was to look over his minor league numbers they would never think he would become the best pitcher of his generation. The stats are good for a potential number three pitcher, but not what you would expect from an ace.
Johan Santana's four-year minor league career:
20 wins, 20 losses, 65 games/57 starts, 6 complete games/4 shutouts, 342.2 IP, 349 K, 344 hits, 130 BB, 214 runs/182 earned, 33 HR*, 1.39 WHIP.
*note: In his 2007 season, Santana gave up as many homeruns as he did in his entire minor league career.
Santana's 2007 season was still great, but it was pretty weak for his standards.
15 wins, 13 losses, 33 games/starts, 3.33 ERA, 1 complete game/shutout, 219 IP, 235 K, 183 hits, 52 BB, 88 runs/81 earned, 33 HR, 1.07 WHIP, .225 BAA.
The batting average against him is the highest of his career as a starting pitcher. Clearly players were hitting him better this past season than in his previous years. He only tossed 219 innings, but in that time he let up his highest HR total, his highest ERA, a very high WHIP; aka - he was hittable. Johan Santana is human, sans the evidence above.
Phil Hughes (6'5", 220 lbs., RHSP):
Enter Phil Hughes, the 21 year old minor league phenom. Just a year ago Hughes was touted as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and rightfully so. As previously stated, Johan Santana went from having a so-so minor league career to having a great major league career. What happens if someone has a terrific minor league career, do they have a chance of having an even better major league career? Phil Hughes certainly has a chance to be a good one.
His minor league stat line is quite impressive. Keep in mind that both Hughes and Santana played in 4 years of minor league ball, but Hughes played in a few less games. Quality over quantity.
25 wins, 8 losses, 54 games/53 starts, 2.03 ERA, 1 complete game, 275 IP, 311 K, 170 hits, 66 BB, 71 runs/52 earned, 6 HR, 0.86 WHIP.
There is no other word to use except for dominance. His career record is much better, his ERA is twice as good, his K/9 is 1 point higher than Santana's, he gave up less hits, walks, and homeruns than Santana. Practically everything he did outshined Santana. Not only that, but Hughes is well known for being mentally tough and extremely mature for his age.
Now let's look at Phil Hughes' 2007 stat line. Keep in mind that he had a torn hamstring and a grade 2 sprained ankles, which he battled back from throughout the year.
5 wins, 3 losses, 13 games/starts, 4.46 ERA, 72.2 IP, 58 K, 64 hits, 29 BB, 39 runs/36 earned, 8 HR, 1.28 WHIP, .235 BAA.
Another thing to note is that Hughes had a no-hitter through nearly 7 innings in his second career start. That is further evidence to show his talent.
Hughes' numbers could have been even better, but he struggled at home in Yankee Stadium. The home/road splits are baffling.
Home - 7 games/starts, 1 win, 2 losses, 35 IP, 45 hits, 25 runs/23 earned, 3 HR, 14 BB, 30 K, 5.91 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .313 BAA.
Away - 6 games/starts, 4 wins, 1 loss, 37.2 IP, 19 hits, 14 runs/13 earned, 5 HR, 15 BB, 28 K, 3.11 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, .148 BAA.
His away numbers are complete domination considering he was a rookie. His BAA and WHIP were incredible, and he had a 4-1 record. Most players have between 15-20 starts on the road. If Phil were to win 4 of every 5 of those games on the road, and had 20 road games, that would be a record of 16 wins/4 losses. Now the chances of that happening are astronomical, and I would always bet against any pitcher doing that. I was merely throwing out the statistics that Hughes pitched better on the road, and he got the wins because of actual pitching. He had a very low WHIP/BAA, so his pitching ability is clear as day. It was just some food for thought when realizing how well he actually pitched in his limited innings while away.
Now let us take a look at how the two compare at the same age (21).
Johan Santana, age 21, 2000:
2 wins, 3 losses, 30 games/5 starts, 6.49 ERA, 86 IP, 64 K, 102 hits, 54 BB, 64 runs/62 earned, 11 HR, 1.81 WHIP, .302 BAA.
Phil Hughes, age 21, 2007:
5 wins, 3 losses, 13 games/starts, 4.46 ERA, 72.2 IP, 58 K, 64 hits, 29 BB, 39 runs/36 earned, 8 HR, 1.28 WHIP, .235 BAA.
There are some reasons as to why I believe Hughes will be more valuable to the Yankees.
A.) He finished the season strong...
...5 games/starts, 3 wins, 0 losses, 2.73 ERA, 29.2 IP, 18 K, 25 hits, 10 BB, 10 runs/9 earned, 2 HR, 1.18 WHIP, .229 BAA.
B.) Santana didn't finish the season strong...
...5 games/starts, 1 win, 3 losses, 4.94 ERA, 31.0 IP, 35 K, 27 hits, 11 BB, 18 runs/17 earned, 4 HR, 1.23 WHIP, .229 BAA.
C.) Hughes is much cheaper & younger.
D.) The Yankees have had bad luck bringing in big name, expensive pitchers.
E.) Hughes has a chance to duplicate Santana's first successful year in the rotation, and possibly put up even more wins thanks to the offense...
...2003 - 12 wins, 3 losses, 3.07 ERA, 158.1 IP, 169 K, 127 hits, 47 BB, 56 runs/54 earned, 1.10 WHIP, .216 BAA.
Hughes is already good enough to be a #4 or #5 starter on most teams. In an era where Carlos Silva can get $50mil, based on his potential and age, Hughes is already much more valuable than that. If he can improve the way Santana did, then he will be a cheaper investment, as well as productive fantasy pitcher. Hughes has the ability to win 15-20 games, with a sub-4 ERA, and have a strikeout/inning, if 100% healthy. It is quite a stretch to say Hughes is better than Santana, because he isn't. However, Hughes has the ability to become a very good pitcher, become Santana-like himself, or perhaps even surpass him. The minor league numbers completely dominated Santana's, perhaps in the future his major league numbers will as well. Only time will tell. A word of advice to those in keeper leagues; pick Hughes up and hold onto the pick so tight that God himself can't pry it away. You may be handsomely rewarded.