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MLB Fantasy Minute - Week 16

In this abbreviated edition of the Fantasy Minute (because of the All-Star break), we look at Josh Hamilton, the Mets and the power of C.C.:

1.  Keep an eye on Josh Hamilton.  Yes, Hamilton has been terrific all season.  And yes, Hamilton, right now, is the centerpiece of the Rangers' offense.  But is he nearly as good as the hype during the All-Star break?  Home Run Derbies have a way of extolling players with ever-fleeting love and affection, but what happened to Hamilton was off the charts.  28 home runs in one round is superhuman, and 13 straight is unprecedented, especially with the incredible distance Hamilton put into each home run.  What is important, though, is what happens with Hamilton going forward.  Everyone remembers what happened with Bobby Abreu after his emotionally charged, unexpected Home Run Derby streak in 2005.  Will the same happen with Hamilton?  Remember, Abreu was a player who could be counted on for 20-30 homers, but was never really considered a true HR hitter.  Hamilton has not even had a chance to establish his reputation, having entered the 2008 season with a grand total of 19 career HR, so for both, the Home Run Derby performances basically came out of nowhere.  The first seven to ten games for Hamilton after the All-Star break should be telling.  If he did develop too much of an uppercut and tries to hit home runs with every pitch, then he could struggle in the second half.  However, if he comes out hot, then he could be in for a huge second half.  So far, the jury is out, as he is hitting only .250 since the break, but one of those was a three-run HR.

2.  Look to the Mets for second-half fantasy value.  The Mets went into the fantasy season as one of the teams predicted to have the most fantasy-worthy players.  Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, Luis Castillo, Billy Wagner, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine were each almost certainly drafted in every league.  However, only Reyes, Wright, and Wagner met expectations in the first half, while Santana did okay enough, but did not pitch nearly to expectations and had minimal run support.  The others suffered from ineffectiveness, injury, or both.  However, the Mets ended the first half on a nine-game winning streak, and that was due in large part to strong performances from many of these disappointing players, particularly Beltran, Delgado, Perez, and Mike Pelfrey, one of the preseason sleepers.  Owners can't expect much from Pedro Martinez anymore, and Alou is likely finished, but all of the aforementioned players could have big second halves as they chase the NL East title, so look to buy low on them before it's too late.

3.  C.C. Sabathia will have the most dominant second half of any player.  Really, this one isn't too hard to figure out.  Sabathia was already on a roll before he arrived in Milwaukee, having overcome a disastrous start to muster up a 2.44 ERA in May and a 1.90 ERA in June.  His trade to Milwaukee, however, might have put him into another gear, which is a scary proposition for National League hitters.  In three starts with Milwaukee, he has already pitched two complete games, thoroughly dominating hitters to the tune of a 1.88 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 1.00 K/9 IP ratio.  Sabathia's K rate is at his highest level ever in his major league career, and now that he faces the pitcher as the number nine hitter at least twice a game, he could be well on his way to shattering last year's mark of 241 IP.  That means Sabathia could break 250 Ks, and if he continues to pitch nearly as well as he has since coming to Milwaukee, we are talking about one of the best fantasy halves of any pitcher in recent memory.

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