A few days ago, I posted a piece on Fantasy Football Librarian about averaging twelve different top 100 overall rankings from fantasy football experts out there, including the Bruno Boys Top 150 Cheat Sheet. So, I averaged all the rankings with the help of my husband and his Stata program and then looked at the standard deviation of the rankings to determine the amount of consensus on the picks. Then, since I've always wondered how tiers are created for fantasy football, my final act was to do a k-means cluster analysis on the rankings to create some statistically-based tiers. That's slightly fancy stats talk to say this: based on 12 overall rankings from fantasy football experts, I created the following positional tiers...
-------------------
First up, the quarterbacks, who ended up in 5 clusters that grouped the most similarly ranked players together. In the example below this means that Eli Manning, the last QB in Tier 3, is more similar to Brett Favre than he is to Philip Rivers, the first QB in Tier 4.
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking |
Avg QB Ranking |
QB Rank |
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tom Brady |
QB |
7.25 |
1 |
1 |
|
Peyton Manning |
QB |
17.08333 |
2.166667 |
2 |
|
Tony Romo |
QB |
23.58333 |
2.916667 |
3 |
|
Drew Brees |
QB |
32.41667 |
4 |
4 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carson Palmer |
QB |
42.83333 |
5.583333 |
5 |
|
Ben Roethlisberger |
QB |
45.91667 |
6.083333 |
6 |
|
Derek Anderson |
QB |
59.16667 |
7.916667 |
7 |
|
Donovan McNabb |
QB |
60.08333 |
8.166667 |
8 |
|
Matt Hasselbeck |
QB |
63.75 |
8.583333 |
9 |
|
Marc Bulger |
QB |
83.75 |
12.16667 |
10 |
|
TIER 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jay Cutler |
QB |
83.33334 |
13.41667 |
11 |
|
David Garrard |
QB |
92.16666 |
15 |
12 |
|
Brett Favre |
QB |
95.58334 |
16.41667 |
13 |
|
Eli Manning |
QB |
102.3333 |
18 |
14 |
|
TIER 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Philip Rivers |
QB |
111.3333 |
20.83333 |
15 |
|
Matt Schaub |
QB |
113.0833 |
21.08333 |
16 |
|
Jake Delhomme |
QB |
115.75 |
22 |
17 |
|
Aaron Rodgers |
QB |
119.0833 |
23.41667 |
18.5 |
|
Vince Young |
QB |
120.3333 |
23.5 |
20 |
|
TIER 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Matt Leinart |
QB |
120.6667 |
23.41667 |
18.5 |
Yup, Matt Leinart gets his own tier. Tier of fantasy undraftworthiness. Can I add that word to Webster's because I might bust it out a lot over the next few weeks.
-------------------
Onto running backs. Since there are lot more running backs around the NFL, their cluster analysis ended up with ten tiers.
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking |
Avg RB Ranking |
RB Rank |
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
LaDainian Tomlinson |
RB |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Adrian Peterson |
RB |
2.666667 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
Brian Westbrook |
RB |
2.916667 |
2.75 |
3 |
|
Steven Jackson |
RB |
4.5 |
4.083333 |
4 |
|
Joseph Addai |
RB |
5.416667 |
4.916667 |
5 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Clinton Portis |
RB |
9.333333 |
7.5 |
6 |
|
Frank Gore |
RB |
10.25 |
7.916667 |
7 |
|
Marion Barber |
RB |
10.83333 |
8.333333 |
8 |
|
Larry Johnson |
RB |
11.41667 |
8.666667 |
9 |
|
Marshawn Lynch |
RB |
11.16667 |
8.833333 |
10 |
|
TIER 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ryan Grant |
RB |
15.25 |
11 |
11 |
|
Maurice Jones-Drew |
RB |
17.66667 |
12.58333 |
12 |
|
Willis McGahee |
RB |
20.41667 |
13.5 |
13 |
|
Jamal Lewis |
RB |
22.5 |
14.41667 |
14 |
|
Brandon Jacobs |
RB |
29.5 |
17.25 |
15 |
|
TIER 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Reggie Bush |
RB |
32.66667 |
18.66667 |
16 |
|
Laurence Maroney |
RB |
33.75 |
19.5 |
17 |
|
Darren McFadden |
RB |
36.08333 |
20.66667 |
18.5 |
|
Michael Turner |
RB |
36.5 |
20.66667 |
18.5 |
|
Earnest Graham |
RB |
36.75 |
20.75 |
20 |
|
Willie Parker |
RB |
39.41667 |
21.16667 |
21 |
|
Ronnie Brown |
RB |
37.41667 |
21.25 |
22 |
|
Thomas Jones |
RB |
40.83333 |
21.83333 |
23 |
|
Edgerrin James |
RB |
44.16667 |
22.75 |
24 |
|
Jonathan Stewart |
RB |
47.16667 |
24.33333 |
25 |
|
LenDale White |
RB |
50.66667 |
25.5 |
26 |
|
Selvin Young |
RB |
53.83333 |
26.75 |
27 |
|
Rudi Johnson |
RB |
54 |
26.83333 |
28 |
|
Matt Forte |
RB |
55.83333 |
27.83333 |
29 |
|
Kevin Smith |
RB |
59.25 |
28.75 |
30 |
|
Julius Jones |
RB |
63.83333 |
29.41667 |
31 |
|
TIER 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fred Taylor |
RB |
62.33333 |
31 |
32 |
|
Rashard Mendenhall |
RB |
80.41666 |
35.04167 |
33 |
|
DeAngelo Williams |
RB |
79.66666 |
35.20833 |
34 |
|
Felix Jones |
RB |
85.91666 |
37.25 |
35 |
|
Chester Taylor |
RB |
88.66666 |
37.33333 |
36.5 |
|
Todd Heap |
RB |
89.33334 |
37.33333 |
36.5 |
|
Justin Fargas |
RB |
95.91666 |
38.95833 |
38 |
|
TIER 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ahman Green |
RB |
97 |
39.66667 |
39 |
|
TIER 7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Chris Johnson |
RB |
108.8333 |
42.95833 |
40 |
|
TIER 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ricky Williams |
RB |
112.25 |
44.33333 |
42 |
|
Jerious Norwood |
RB |
114.5833 |
44.54167 |
44 |
|
TIER 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ahmad Bradshaw |
RB |
113.8333 |
44.45833 |
43 |
|
Maurice Morris |
RB |
118.6667 |
45.58333 |
46 |
|
Brandon Jackson |
RB |
121.1667 |
46.33333 |
47 |
|
TIER 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Deuce McAllister |
RB |
109.25 |
43.20833 |
41 |
|
Chris Brown |
RB |
116.25 |
45.08333 |
45 |
|
Kevin Jones |
RB |
122.1667 |
46.58333 |
48 |
|
Dominic Rhodes |
RB |
122.25 |
46.66667 |
49 |
|
Ray Rice |
RB |
122.9167 |
46.79167 |
50 |
|
Steve Slaton |
RB |
122.4167 |
46.83333 |
51 |
|
Derrick Ward |
RB |
122.5 |
46.91667 |
52 |
|
Andre Hall |
RB |
122.5833 |
47 |
53 |
Now one of the interesting players to look at here is Deuce McAllister at the top of Tier 10; his RB ranking is high relative to the rest of his tier, but clearly he had a few particularly low rankings from experts to bump him down two tiers into Tier 10.
-------------------
How about wide receivers? Think I'd forget about those guys who can make or break a quarterback. Again, due to the volume of wide receivers, the wide receiver cluster analysis also uses ten tiers.
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking
|
Avg WR Ranking
|
WR Rank
|
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Randy Moss |
WR |
8 |
1 |
1 |
|
Terrell Owens |
WR |
15.16667 |
2.416667 |
2 |
|
Reggie Wayne |
WR |
15.66667 |
3.083333 |
3 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Braylon Edwards |
WR |
19.75 |
4.583333 |
4 |
|
Larry Fitzgerald |
WR |
21.58333 |
5.333333 |
5 |
|
Andre Johnson |
WR |
23.08333 |
6 |
6 |
|
Marques Colston |
WR |
26.75 |
7.583333 |
7 |
|
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
WR |
28.25 |
8 |
8 |
|
TIER 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Smith |
WR |
33 |
10.16667 |
9 |
|
Chad Johnson |
WR |
34.16667 |
10.25 |
10 |
|
Torry Holt |
WR |
34.08333 |
11 |
11 |
|
Plaxico Burress |
WR |
35.58333 |
11.58333 |
12 |
|
TIER 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Anquan Boldin |
WR |
43.25 |
13.5 |
13 |
|
Wes Welker |
WR |
42.16667 |
14.16667 |
14 |
|
Santonio Holmes |
WR |
48.83333 |
16 |
15 |
|
Roy Williams |
WR |
51.33333 |
16.375 |
16 |
|
TIER 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Brandon Marshall |
WR |
52.58333 |
18.16667 |
17 |
|
Marvin Harrison |
WR |
58.41667 |
19.75 |
18 |
|
Greg Jennings |
WR |
59.66667 |
19.91667 |
19 |
|
Calvin Johnson |
WR |
62.5 |
21.25 |
20 |
|
Roddy White |
WR |
67.08334 |
22.70833 |
21 |
|
Hines Ward |
WR |
65 |
22.75 |
22 |
|
Lee Evans |
WR |
67.41666 |
23.16667 |
23 |
|
Laveranues Coles |
WR |
69.5 |
23.5 |
24 |
|
TIER 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dwayne Bowe |
WR |
71.08334 |
24.625 |
25 |
|
Jerricho Cotchery |
WR |
76.41666 |
26.83333 |
26 |
|
Donald Driver |
WR |
79 |
27.125 |
27 |
|
Joey Galloway |
WR |
82 |
28.20833 |
28 |
|
Kevin Curtis |
WR |
80 |
28.75 |
29 |
|
Chris Chambers |
WR |
81.41666 |
28.83333 |
30 |
|
Santana Moss |
WR |
84.41666 |
29.875 |
31 |
|
TIER 7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bobby Engram |
WR |
100.9167 |
33.91667 |
33 |
|
TIER 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nate Burleson |
WR |
101.9167 |
34.875 |
34 |
|
TIER 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bernard Berrian |
WR |
94.75 |
32.58333 |
32 |
|
Patrick Crayton |
WR |
110.1667 |
36.70833 |
36 |
|
Reggie Brown |
WR |
115.1667 |
37.70833 |
38 |
|
TIER 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Anthony Gonzalez |
WR |
107.4167 |
36.33333 |
35 |
|
Derrick Mason |
WR |
111.5 |
36.91667 |
37 |
|
Vincent Jackson |
WR |
118.3333 |
38.45833 |
39 |
|
Donte' Stallworth |
WR |
118.9167 |
38.625 |
40 |
|
Javon Walker |
WR |
121.5833 |
38.875 |
41 |
|
Sidney Rice |
WR |
122.5833 |
39.41667 |
42 |
|
Jerry Porter |
WR |
122.5 |
39.45833 |
43 |
|
D.J. Hackett |
WR |
122.8333 |
39.625 |
44 |
For the same reasons that McAllister was of interest with the RBs, here Bernard Berrian is in the same situation. Berrian has a higher average WR ranking than the rest of the players in his tier, but there's less consensus on his rankings placing him in the lower tier.
-------------------
Next up, tight ends, who may have tier envy as they're clustered into a mere four tiers.
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking |
Avg TE Ranking |
TE Rank |
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jason Witten |
TE |
45 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
Antonio Gates |
TE |
46.33333 |
1.916667 |
2 |
|
Kellen Winslow |
TE |
53.58333 |
3 |
3 |
|
Tony Gonzalez |
TE |
58 |
3.666667 |
4 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Chris Cooley |
TE |
74 |
5.666667 |
5 |
|
Dallas Clark |
TE |
81.33334 |
6.375 |
6 |
|
Jeremy Shockey |
TE |
87.41666 |
7 |
7 |
|
TIER 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Vernon Davis |
TE |
105.0833 |
9.666667 |
8 |
|
Heath Miller |
TE |
108.8333 |
10.125 |
9 |
|
Tony Scheffler |
TE |
112.1667 |
10.41667 |
10 |
|
TIER 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Owen Daniels |
TE |
113.25 |
10.79167 |
11 |
|
Alge Crumpler |
TE |
122.75 |
11.54167 |
12 |
|
Ben Watson |
TE |
121.5833 |
11.58333 |
13 |
|
Greg Olsen |
TE |
122 |
11.75 |
14 |
-------------------
Kickers next. Yes, everyone's favorite. Due to the small number of kickers that appeared in top 100 rankings, the kickers need just two two tiers.
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking |
Avg K Ranking |
K Rank |
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nick Folk |
K |
121.1667 |
2.375 |
1 |
|
Robbie Gould |
K |
122 |
2.458333 |
2 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Stephen Gostkowski |
K |
122.5 |
2.541667 |
3 |
|
Shayne Graham |
K |
122.75 |
2.625 |
4 |
-------------------
And, finally D/STs; again, there weren't very many listed in the top 100, so they've also been divided into just two tiers. Clearly one of these things is not like the others...
|
Name |
Position |
Average Ranking |
Avg DEF Ranking |
DEF Rank |
|
TIER 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
San Diego Chargers Defense |
DEF |
102.5833 |
2.041667 |
1 |
|
TIER 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Minnesota Vikings Defense |
DEF |
109.0833 |
2.833333 |
2 |
|
Chicago Bears Defense |
DEF |
118.4167 |
3.291667 |
3 |
|
New England Patriots Defense |
DEF |
118.4167 |
3.416667 |
4.5 |
|
Seattle Seahawks Defense |
DEF |
120.5833 |
3.416667 |
4.5 |
So, there you have it - a little k-means cluster analysis used to tier twelve top 100 rankings from fantasy football experts. For a list of the expert rankings I used, click here. Happy drafting!
--------------------
Past "A Librarians Touch" Articles (click to view)
Best & Worst of 2008
Week 17 Sneaky Fantasy Football Options
Championship Week Defenses
Finding the Week 15 Gem
Revisiting the Top 10 Running Backs
Taking It One Week At A Time
Predicting Playoff Studs
Second Half Players to Avoid
Second Half Handcuffs
Finding the Week 8 Bye Week Fill-In
Which Top 10 Running Backs will remain strong in 2008?
Shop Em, Don't Drop Em
Bye-ing into a Team D/ST
Forecasting Streaky Players
Fantasy Football Hindsight from Week 1
Hidden Potential Among Rookies
Fantasy Football Draft Day Trends
Creating Fantasy Football Tiers
Pick your Kicker with some Statistical Perspective
Optimizing Your Tight End
Beyond the Obvious with IDP's
Committing to a Running Back Committee
------------------
Sara Holladay, owner of Fantasy Football Librarian, will be writing a weekly feature called "A Librarians Touch" on the Bruno Boys website on every Wednesday throughout the football season. Remember to check back next week to read what Holladay has on her fantasy football mind.
----------------
::Questions? Comments? How about you SIGN UP for an account and leave a comment. Plus, by signing up you can MANAGE ALL of your FANTASY FOOTBALL teams from ONE ACCOUNT.::