History has shown us that some projections are going to be off the mark. The science of the cheat sheet is not exact and this becomes quite obvious by roughly week 8. So, while we project, examine, pontificate, we really have no possible way of knowing everything that’s going to happen in the 2008 season. Want proof of the craziness of sports? The Tampa Bay Rays sit atop the American League East in late August. You see, sports, in general, are near impossible to predict.
That being said, we still give you, our loyal Bruno Boys readers, our most educated opinions as to what will happen in the coming year. There will be sleepers that explode onto the fantasy landscape. There will be high-profile busts. How do you predict which is which prior to your draft? I honestly wish I knew a lock-safe method; I’d be rich.
However, take heart my friends! We can raise red flags. We can show you the problem areas for a given player or team. We can measure your risk. And therein lies the secret; if the reward for hitting a home run on a given player does not equal or outweigh the risk of a bust, let someone else take the chance.
And so, with these red flags in mind, we bring you the 2008 Bruno Boys "Bring out the Pepto" Defense/Special Teams Rankings, letting you spot that heartburn before 3 AM on a Sunday morning.
Ranking System: The higher the “Bring out the Pepto” ranking, the more likely a player is to bust.
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Green Bay Packers
The Cheeseheads finished 2007 ranked 12th in passing defense (based on Yards Per Game) and 14th in rushing defense. Ho hum. Yet defensive points aren’t based on yards; they’re based on sacks, turnovers, and points. The Packers tied for sixth in interceptions in 2007 and finished in the top 20 in sacks and fumble recoveries. For most fantasy football owners, the Pack was a middle-of-the-road option at best, though playing both the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears twice certainly provided quality match-ups.
For 2008, the landscape in the state of Wisconsin has forever been changed. The Pride of the Pack, Brett Favre, has been traded to the New York Jets. In his stead, former first-round pick and Cal Bear Aaron Rodgers takes the reins to what was a prolific offense in 2007. Why should this matter for a fantasy defense? Simply stated: fatigue. Regardless of the talent of a defense, excess time on the field will lead to problems. If Rodgers and company can’t keep the ball on offense, the Pack will struggle on defense. They’ll make you sick, a sickness no amount of pepto can overcome. For this, the Packers receive THREE BOTTLES OF PEPTO.
Talent is certainly there to succeed, and they’re an obvious play the four weeks against the Bears and Lions. The rest of the season, however, is certainly in question with Number Four in New York.
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Oakland Raiders
Oakland found itself in a unique position in 2007. Their passing defense was spectacular, finishing eighth overall in yards per game and tied for tenth in interceptions. However, the ground game was their kryptonite as the Silver and Black finished 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. Fatigue, as just mentioned with the Packers, probably played a role in their inability to stop opposing rushers as Daunte Culpepper, JaMarcus Russell and company were quite pathetic on offense. As a side note, when choosing between two seemingly equal defenses, pick the one with the better offense.
Red flags for 2008 still exist for the Raiders. While Darren McFadden is likely to be an electric offensive player, he can’t stop the run. Glenn Dorsey can, but he’s in Kansas City. Oakland will still struggle mightily to stop the run, leading many teams to simply cram the ball down their throats. However, the secondary may be even more prolific, with offseason acquisitions of shut-down corner DeAngelo Hall from Atlanta and tackle machine Gibril Wilson from the Giants. Since most of you aren’t drafting Oakland as anything more than a bye week or match-ups type defense, the risk is much reduced. Still, for their complete inability to stop the run, the Oakland Raiders receive TWO BOTTLES OF PEPTO.
Please don’t read this and think we’re suggesting Oakland will be better than Green Bay for your DST slot. Not hardly. It’s all about the balance of risk and reward, and for the low risk waiver addition of the Raiders, there’s the potential in any week for some turnovers in that secondary.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Where would you draft a defense that finished 2007 18th in passing defense, seventh in rushing defense, ninth in sacks, and 27th and 30th respectively in fumble recoveries and interceptions? They’re starter worthy, right? Top ten or twelve? I hope not. The truth of the matter is the Eagles are a much better defense in real life than in fantasy football. Passing and rushing defense often lead to low scoring outputs, but fantasy production is generated by turnovers, something Philadelphia hasn’t done well recently.
If you draft the Eagles, they’re not likely to make you sick as they’re still a solid defense. You won’t, however, receive the warm, fuzzy feeling inside that comes from owning a lock-down turnover machine in your DST slot. The Eagles receive ONE BOTTLE OF PEPTO as they’re not extremely likely to be a bust. However, they’re also not extremely likely to make you happy with selecting them as a starting defense.
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Position by Position BUST Rankings (click to view)
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Quarterbacks
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Running Backs
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Wide Receivers
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Tight Ends
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Kickers
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Team Defenses
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Position by Position Sleeper Rankings (click to view)
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Quarterbacks
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Running Backs
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Wide Receivers
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Tight Ends
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Kickers
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Team Defenses
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