I'll admit, I read a few different places before I write this column each week (as I'm sure you're aware), and again PGATour.Com; I checked out their
picks and
sleepers sections. I don't know why I bother, because it just gets me all riled up. First of all, Sergio Garcia is prominently featured again, this time his 4.5 point Ryder Cup performance at Oakland Hills in 2004 is the main reason. First, the Ryder Cup is match play, not stroke play; so you can't translate one to the other. I mean, you can win a match 5&4 and still shoot 80. Other than that, the win at The Players is weakly added to the conversation; but oddly, his T-18th at the U.S. Open (where he was +11 or something like that), his T-51st at the British Open (with the big-time 74-78 finish on the weekend) or the Missed Cut at The Masters doesn't seem to gain any mention at all. Interesting. Of course, if it's not Sergio, it's Phil being picked, because bogeying three of your last four (and parring the par-5 hole which was the easiest on the course) makes you a lock for the next week's tournament. And their sleepers? David Toms (2001 PGA Winner) is most prominently featured, and with good reason. His three top-25 finishes, none better than T-17th, are clearly more than enough reason to think he'd win a major. Or, maybe it's the $400,000+ won on the PGA Tour this year (that number is AWESOME on the Nationwide Tour)? Regardless, I saw someone picked Davis Love III, and I had to click away, because ... well, that's just insane. So it became clear that this was going to have to be a well thought-out effort from me; because I know most of you saw that and did the same thing. I'm on it; and I think I've got three.
Henrick Stenson - A Group - He hasn't played enough regular Tour events to get ranks on the PGA Tour, but he does qualify on the European PGA Tour. Suffice it to say, Stenson has been playing well stateside. In seven events, he's made six cuts, with five top-25s (more than David Toms, if you were checking). And some of those better finishes? How about T-3rd at the British Open, or 3rd at the WGC Accenture Match Play, or T-10th at The Players, or T-17th at The Masters or T-16th just last week at the WGC - Bridgestone Invitational? Those are some pretty difficult tournaments, and Stenson has been right there all season. I like him as a sleeper this week, because he will be one of the better putters in the field. Here are some of his European Tour stat ranks: He's 15th in Scoring Average, 71st in Driving Accuracy (not great, but not terrible), 58th in Driving Distance, 40th in Greens In Regulation, and he's 34th in Putting Average and 19th in Putts Per Round. Folks, that's a solid, steady player who has nothing but solid, steady performances in majors and big tournaments this year. He's the kind of player who can, under the right circumstances, be the type to just jump up out of nowhere on Sunday when the leaders start coming back to the field. Keep your eyes on Stenson; he'll be in the mix by 6 PM on Sunday.
Miguel Angel Jimenez - B Group - Since everyone seems hell-bent on picking a Spaniard to win, why not pick one who has played consistently well in all the big tournaments this year, and one who can, you know, putt. Jimenez, much like Stenson, has been in the mix, lurking near the top in all the big-time tournaments all year long. How about T-8th in the Masters, T-6th at the U.S. Open and T-10th last week? What's the one thing all three of those tournaments have in common? You need to putt well. What's the one thing you absolutely must do this week to compete at Oakland Hills? You need to putt well. What can Jimenez do? Oh yeah, he can putt well. Let's take a look at his European Tour putting stats, where he's 5th in Putting Average and 34th in Putts Per Round. That alone should keep him in touch with the top-25, and if he can get the driver working, he's going to be right there come Sunday as well.
Ben Crane - C Group - And let's come back stateside for our final sleeper, for the exciting 32-year-old from Oregon. He's had a solid year on Tour, making 15 of 17 cuts, with seven top-25s, and three top-10s. He's currently 60th in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he'll likely be around throughout the playoffs. Of late, he hasn't played well to be sure; he's had a rough couple of months, but just like you can't teach speed in other sports; you can't teach putting (I mean, you CAN, but pretty much, you can either putt or you can't). And Crane just happens to be one of the best putters on Tour. He's 21st in Putting Average and 28th in Putts Per Round. Incomplete game you say? RETORT, I say: He's 91st in Driving Distance and 44th in Driving Accuracy, good for 22nd in Total Driving. He's 67th in Greens In Regulation. He's 33rd in Sand Saves. He's even 6th in Scrambling and 9th ... 9TH! in All-Around Ranking. My friends, that is a sleeper lying in the weeds; and if he doesn't strike you as a Mark Brooks, or a Sandy Lyle-type who can jump up and win this thing outright; then I don't know what to tell you. I'll say this; it's a better sleeper pick than Davis Love III.